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Foreclosure predications from 2010 that never came to be

So, whatever did happen to that old "Shadow Inventory"?  Bryan makes some interesting observations here.  

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Foreclosures have been a hot topic for years. Back in 2010 most industry analysts and economists predicted that foreclosures would continue to rise for at least two years. possibly longer. In addition to those predictions they continued to make estimates based on factors with little or no substantiation. Fortunately for the country, those predictions were wrong.

The foreclosure predictions for 2012 complete lie! According to RealtyTrac, who is considered the leader in foreclosure data, actual home repositions as of September 2012 were 572,844, significantly below the 1,147,000 that occurred in 2011.  These gross gaps between predictions and reality were little more than fear mongering. A recent press release by the Mortgage Bankers Association discusses the ongoing trends from the last two years and how foreclosures actually declined significantly in many parts of the country.

One of the major factors impact foreclosures has been overall economy. When I originally addressed this topic back in 2010 I had actually made a prediction that if unemployment improved, foreclosures which slows significantly. This prediction was actually true and in fact can be referenced in the article from the Mortgage Bankers Association.  If you want to see the actual trends just look at the graphics RealtyTrac below.


What about shadow inventory?  Back in 2010 there were projections of millions of homes that would be owned by banks. These would come on and flood the market and keep prices low. Well, those predictions were a lie as well.  As it turns out, shadow inventory has been dramatically declining and is expected to continue to decline on track with actual home repossessions. You can read more details in this Wall Street Journal article.


Similar article: Foreclose warning - projections are a lie!

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 Bryan Robertson, Broker Associate | T: 650.799.9951 | Email: | Website: |CA License: 01191946 | Sereno Group - Los Altos branch | 369 S. San Antonio Road | Los Altos, CA 94022


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Comment balloon 0 commentsPatricia Kennedy • December 27 2012 07:47AM