Back in the 1990's, when the DC real estate market was pretty bad, I helped a favorite client buy his first place. It was a condo overlooking Rock Creek in my favorite building in Georgetown.
Then, after he got married and became a dad, I helped him sell his wonderful bachelor pad and buy the family's first little house - also in Georgetown. At that time, the local market was white hot, with bidding wars on every house that came on the market. He did really well on the sale of his condo. But on the buying end, he and his bride made a lot of offers on houses before they finally got one accepted.
Now it's time to move once again, as they welcomed a baby son into their Georgetown dollhouse. So it's listed for a more than they paid for it, and they are trying to figure out what to do about a new place.
Here in DC, we are finally having to admit we're in another buyers' market. Prices are beginning to decline, and bidding wars happen, but they are pretty rare. Typically, a buyer can go in and negotiate with the seller for a lower price and favorable (to the buyer) terms. And this couple is on the fence, not about selling, but about buying a new house. They are really on the fence!
In any kind of market, you never know what the prices will be in another year or two. And somehow, in a crazy sellers' market, nobody seems to care. But this couple is being very, very cautious about the next move, and I think they are pretty typical of today's pool of homebuyers.
Why?
- Price run ups occur when people feel optimistic about their own futures and the future of the community where they want to live. In buyer's market, just the opposite is true. While my couple are both bright and highly marketable career wise, they are in a "Ya never know" frame of mind.
- In a hot sellers' market, buyers don't tend to think about the likelihood that their homes could be worth less in a year or two, or at least they don't seem to be bothered by this possibility. During a period when prices are going down, the idea that their home will lose value may cause paralysis and they stay on the proverbial fence.
- In both types of markets, you have that old Greek chorus in the background - the media. They can help fan the flames in a hot market, and in a buyer's market (right now) we are seeing a barrage of worst case possibility stories every time we turn on the TV or read the paper. When prices are high, it's like buyers are afraid of missing out and do crazy things (for reporters to write about). When prices are going down, people buy into the scary media stories instead of buying new homes.
So, my cute couple are thinking about selling their small house and renting a larger one for a while. If they were reasonably certain their next house would be the "forever house", it would totally make sense to buy now. Even if prices go down further, it's not likely that they'll stay down for long. But if they think they may be in a state of professional or geographic flux, the equation changes.
Now, they are the boss of me. If they say "Find us a place to buy," that's what I do. And if they say, "Find us a place to rent," that'll be my job. They are not only favorite clients, they are both really smart people, and I totally respect and support whatever decision they make.
And even if its not buy low, or buy lower than it would have been a couple of years ago - or maybe lower than next year?
Who knows!